NCAA Tournament bubble watching heading into March 15

Story posted March 15, 2013 in CommRadio, Sports by Bradford Conners

With Selection Sunday now just two days away, it’s make-or-break time for a slew of teams sitting on the cusp of the NCAA Tournament field. Right now, there appear to be 12 bubble teams in contention for the final four spots in the Big Dance.

For some of these bubble teams, the fate is still in their own hands, as they can clinch a tourney berth on their own if they take care of business in their conference tournaments, or at least put themselves in good shape for an at-large bid with one or two more wins. But for those who suffered early exits in their conference tournaments, they are faced with the agonizing task of having to sit at home and watch, pulling for their bubble foes to falter.

In addition, all bubble teams need to become Memphis fans this week, because if the Tigers don’t win their conference title, the C-USA will become a multibid league, which would take a spot away from a bubble team. It would also help if Akron won the MAC title, or else the Zips will be thrown into the bubble fray as well.

Here’s a team-by-team look at the schools currently sitting on the bubble.

Note: All RPI information reflects Rivals’ RPI rankings as of Thursday, March 14th.

Alabama: 20-11, 12-6 SEC (RPI: 61, SOS: 83)

After falling to fellow bubble team Ole Miss on the road last week, Alabama’s tournament chances became very bleak. However, the Crimson Tide did manage to survive a scare and knock off Georgia at home on a half-court buzzer beater on Sunday, at least keeping themselves in the hunt for an at-large berth.

Even though Alabama has the same conference record as Ole Miss and Kentucky and was a game better than Tennessee, the Tide are currently behind those other three teams in the SEC pecking order due to their miserable performance in December. Alabama went 1-5 that month and suffered nonconference home losses to Dayton (RPI: 108), Mercer (RPI: 134), and Tulane (RPI: 181). A 1-4 record against the RPI Top 50 and an embarrassing 49-37 road loss to Auburn (RPI: 229) in February aren’t helping matters either. In order to make the NCAA Tournament, Alabama needs a win over Tennessee on Friday, and probably needs to upset Florida in the semifinals as well.

Baylor: 18-14, 9-9 Big 12 (RPI: 64, SOS: 25)

After starting off last week with a loss to Texas, Baylor’s at-large hopes looked to have been crushed. However, the Bears responded admirably on Saturday with an 81-58 shellacking of then-No. 4 Kansas, and suddenly, they were right back in the thick of the bubble race.

Baylor came into the Big 12 Tournament needing a win over No. 14 Oklahoma State, which would have been its second win over the Cowboys on the season. After the Bears fell behind 42-24, a valiant comeback effort enabled them to knot the score at 72 in the final 20 seconds. However, a pair of late free throws sealed the game for Oklahoma State, making an NCAA Tournament selection highly unlikely for Baylor. Barring a complete collapse from other bubble teams, an 11-14 record against teams ranked in the RPI Top 200 just simply isn’t going to cut it.

Boise State: 21-10, 9-7 MWC (RPI: 44, SOS: 44)

In the final week of the regular season, the Broncos missed a big opportunity to pick up a signature conference road win by blowing a double-digit second-half lead against UNLV, but they responded nicely with a home win over San Diego State. Boise State had a chance to put itself on the right side of the bubble with another win over the Aztecs in the Mountain West quarterfinals, but the Broncos put forth one their worst efforts of the season in a 73-67 loss to San Diego State---a game that would have been a blowout if the Aztecs didn’t also play one of their worst games of the season.

Boise State’s computer numbers---a Top 50 RPI and an 8-8 record vs. teams in the RPI Top 100---make the Broncos look like a deserving tournament team. Leon Rice’s squad does have a noteworthy nonconference win at then-No. 11 Creighton, but in conference play, the Broncos have been nothing better than mediocre. Boise State finished 9-7 overall in Mountain West games but went just 3-6 against conference foes that will make the NCAA Tournament.

In addition, Boise’s computer numbers are a case of secondhand inflation. The Broncos’ two big wins---home against UNLV (RPI: 22) and Colorado State (RPI: 16)---came against teams with majorly inflated RPIs, which makes those wins look better than they really are. Also, Boise State’s RPI reflects getting more credit than it deserves for sweeping Wyoming (RPI: 69), who went just 4-12 in MWC play. The selection committee may give the Broncos the benefit of the doubt due to their high RPI, but if the committee stayed up late to watch their lackluster showing on Wednesday night, Boise State may be very disappointed come Selection Sunday.

Iowa: 21-11, 9-9 Big Ten (RPI: 77, SOS: 102)

It would seem as if a team that goes .500 in the best conference in the country would be worthy of an at-large bid. However, six of Iowa’s nine conference wins came against the four Big Ten teams that will not be going dancing in 2013 (Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, and Purdue), and their three “big” wins---home victories over Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois---aren’t really too much to write home about. Throw in the fact that the Hawkeyes played a cupcake nonconference schedule, and an at-large bid for Fran McCaffery’s squad looks like a long shot.

It isn’t as if Iowa hasn’t come close to notching some signature wins. This year, the Hawkeyes have suffered a four-point home loss to Indiana, a three-point home loss to Michigan State, a three-point loss at Minnesota, and a double-overtime loss at Wisconsin. In order to make the tournament, Iowa will need to start closing out games against these quality teams, and it all starts with a quarterfinal match-up against Michigan State on Friday. To get onto the right side of the bubble, the Hawkeyes would probably need to tack on a semifinal victory over Ohio State as well.

Kentucky: 21-10, 12-6 SEC (RPI: 50, SOS: 60)

Prior to last week, the one thing that the Wildcats had going for them on their resume was the lack of loss to a sub-RPI Top 100 team, but that changed with a road loss to Georgia last Thursday. As a result, Kentucky came into Sunday’s game desperately needing a win over then-No. 11 Florida, and the defending champs delivered. Finally picking up a signature win without Nerlens Noel on the court, the Wildcats put themselves on the right side of the bubble heading into the SEC Tournament.

Nonetheless, Kentucky is still just 9-10 against the RPI Top 150 and has certainly not yet sealed its tournament fate. A win against Vanderbilt on Friday would probably be enough, but the Wildcats could really use a semifinal win over the winner of the Missouri/Ole Miss game to feel safe about their at-large chances.

La Salle: 21-8, 11-5 A-10 (RPI: 40, SOS: 78)

To conclude the regular season, La Salle glided past George Washington but then fell on the road to then-No. 16 Saint Louis. While there is no shame in losing to the Bilikens, who are the hottest team in the A-10, the way that the Explorers lost that game---a 78-54 final---may have damaged their tournament hopes a bit.

La Salle is still hanging its hat on the two signature wins it picked up back in January---a home win over Butler, who was ranked in the Top 10 at the time, and a key road win against VCU. The Explorers can lock up a tournament bid with win over Butler on Friday in their quarterfinal match-up, but if they can’t knock off the Bulldogs for the second time this season, John Giannini’s squad will be sweating it out big time on Selection Sunday.

Maryland: 21-11, 8-10 ACC (RPI: 85, SOS: 106)

To have a realistic chance at making the NCAA Tournament, Maryland probably needed at least one win in its final two regular season games. However, the Terps didn’t put up much of a fight in their own gym against North Carolina and then missed out on what could have been a gigantic win against their bubble competitor when they fell in overtime at Virginia.

There is only one thing keeping the Terps alive at this point; they already beat Duke, and they have another crack at them on Friday night. Two wins against the Blue Devils would be hard to ignore completely, but to make up for its sub-.500 ACC record, Maryland would need a win in the semis as well---and it would have to come against North Carolina, because a win over Florida State wouldn’t move the needle much at all.

Middle Tennessee State: 28-5, 19-1 Sun Belt (RPI: 29, SOS: 128)

After dominating its conference all season long, the easiest route to the tournament for Middle Tennessee State would’ve been winning the Sun Belt Tournament. However, after being upset by Florida International in the semifinals of their conference tourney, the fate of the Blue Raiders is now in the hands of the selection committee.

One would think that MTSU’s 17-game winning streak has to have some significance, but Kermit Davis’s squad wasn’t necessarily going up against formidable opponents in its Sun Belt games. Then again, the Blue Raiders do have a nice nonconference win over bubble team Ole Miss, and historically, it is extremely rare for a team with a Top 30 RPI to be left outside of the tournament field. Also, even though Middle Tennessee played in a less-than-stellar conference, its strength of schedule ranking (134) isn’t awful. The Blue Raiders definitely have a shot at an at-large bid, but they will need to hope that Friday is a bad day for the other bubble teams.

Ole Miss: 23-8, 12-6 SEC (RPI: 56, SOS: 130)

Ole Miss responded nicely from its potential resume-killing loss against in-state rival Mississippi State with a pair of wins in the final week of the regular season. After an important home win against bubble foe Alabama, the Rebels added a road triumph over LSU, which is far from being an easy place to win.

However, due to a lack of quality wins, Ole Miss is sitting squarely on the bubble. A sweep of Tennessee and home wins over Missouri and Alabama are nice, but there isn’t much else on the Rebels’ resume to brag about, and that nonconference loss to Middle Tennessee could prove to be very costly. Nonetheless, a win over Missouri in the SEC quarterfinals on Friday would probably be enough to get Marshall Henderson and company into March Madness. Leaving a team from a power conference out of the tournament with a 24-9 record and an above-.500 record against the RPI Top 100 seems very difficult to fathom.

Southern Miss: 24-8, 12-4 C-USA (RPI: 34, SOS: 89)

As I mentioned in my last bubble watch, it seems hard to believe that a team with zero wins against teams expected to make the NCAA Tournament could be in consideration for an at-large bid. Then, to make matters worse, the Golden Eagles went and lost to Marshall (RPI: 206) last week---a team that they beat by 56 points earlier in the season.

Why, then, is Southern Miss still in the bubble conversation? There are two reasons. First of all, the Golden Eagles have a Top 35 RPI, which will certainly catch the eyes of the committee. In addition, by virtue of UTEP and UCF sneaking into spots number 99 and 100 in the RPI, just like that, Southern Miss now has five RPI Top 100 wins. Despite their attractive computer profile, even with a run to the C-USA finals, anything more than a cursory look at the Golden Eagles’ game-by-game results should expose the lack of substance on their at-large resume.

Tennessee: 20-11, 11-7 SEC (RPI: 55, SOS: 39)

After having a six-game winning streak snapped at the hands of Georgia, Tennessee responded nicely by adding two more wins in the final week of the regular season---a road victory over Auburn and a home defeat of Missouri. Given the Volunteers’ 3-6 start in SEC play, it is somewhat surprising that they’re in their current position at this point in the season, but Tennessee is right in the thick of the bubble race.

The Vols had no issues with Missippippi State in their first SEC Tournament game, which sets up a huge bubble match-up with Alabama on Friday. A Tennessee victory may be enough to net them an at-large berth, but a semifinal win over either Florida or LSU would lock up a tournament bid. With a loss to the Tide, though, the Volunteers would probably end up behind Ole Miss in the pecking order after the Rebels swept them this season, in which case Tennessee could be NIT-bound for the second straight year.

Virginia: 21-10, 11-7 ACC (RPI: 67, SOS: 124)

It’s not often that a team goes 8-3 against the RPI Top 100 and is left out of the NCAA Tournament. Then again, it’s rare that a team suffers seven losses outside of the Top 100 and still hears its name called on Selection Sunday. However, in the case of the Virginia Cavaliers, something will have to give.

After a horrendous nonconference showing that included losses to George Mason (RPI: 160), Delaware (RPI: 139), and Old Dominion (RPI: 316), Virginia has fared much better in conference play. In their last two games of the regular season, the Cavaliers suffered a road loss against Florida State but then avoided disaster by edging Maryland at home in overtime. 

To make up for its bad losses, Virginia does have a victory over Duke and a solid road win against Wisconsin. However, after a long, grinding, up-and-down season, the Cavaliers may have the simplest bubble scenario of any team on this page. Beat NC State to improve to 5-2 against the RPI Top 50 and Virginia will be going dancing, but with a loss, a tournament bid is unlikely for the Cavaliers.

Bradford Conners is a sophomore majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email btc5082@psu.edu.