In Depth Look at Current Teams on NCAA Tournament Bubble

Story posted March 5, 2013 in CommRadio, Sports by Bradford Conners

With the regular season winding down to its final week, these 14 teams will battle it out for the final eight at-large spots in the NCAA Tournament field.

The number of available at-large spots could be reduced if teams like Memphis or Gonzaga fail to win their conference tournaments, or if teams from multi-bid conferences that are not projected to make the field end up winning their conference title.

Baylor, Iowa, Massachusetts, St. John’s, and Providence all have an outside chance of garnering at-large consideration, but they would each need to win out in the regular season and make a serious run in their respective conference tournaments in order to do so.

Also, if teams like Belmont, Middle Tennessee State, Akron, and Louisiana Tech do not win their conference championships, then they will enter the bubble conversation as well.

Note: All RPI information reflects Rivals’ RPI rankings as of Monday, March 4.

Alabama: 19-10, 11-5 SEC (RPI: 60, SOS: 87)

With their 11-5 conference record, the Crimson Tide would be the two-seed in the SEC Tournament if it started today. However, thanks to a 1-5 record in December, Alabama is probably on the outside of the NCAA Tournament, looking in, at this point in time.

Non-conference home losses to Dayton (RPI: 104), Mercer (RPI: 133), and Tulane (RPI: 175), in addition to an embarrassing 49-37 road loss to Auburn (RPI: 229), could very well end up preventing Alabama from securing its second consecutive trip to the Big Dance. Also, the Crimson Tide do not have an RPI Top 50 win on their resume. Alabama is 3-1 against fellow SEC bubble teams, but all three of those wins came at home. Anthony Grant’s squad needs to wrap up its regular season with wins at Ole Miss and home against Georgia to have any realistic chance of hearing its name called on Selection Sunday.

Arkansas: 18-11, 9-7 SEC (RPI: 80, SOS: 80)

Even though the Razorbacks have a signature win over then-No. 2 Florida to their credit, their RPI is holding them back from being considered a serious bubble contender. As much as the selection committee tells us that the RPI is just one of many factors it uses when selecting teams for the NCAA Tournament, history demonstrates that the RPI is, by far, the biggest determining factor used in the selection process. Since 1994, no team ranked outside of the RPI Top 75 has received an at-large bid. As a result, Arkansas needs to work on its No. 80 RPI to have a shot at an at-large berth.

The Razorbacks are 2-2 against other SEC bubble teams and also have a nice win over Missouri, but they’ve been hurt by their abysmal 2-10 record away from home, which includes blowout losses at South Carolina (RPI: 204) and Vanderbilt (RPI: 132). To have any hope of making the tournament, Arkansas needs to turn around its road woes in a hurry by winning at Missouri on Tuesday and closing out the regular season with a home win over Texas A&M.

Boise State: 20-8, 8-6 MWC (RPI: 44, SOS: 65)

Glancing at Boise State’s computer numbers---a Top 50 RPI and a 7-6 record vs. teams in the RPI Top 100---the Broncos seem like a deserving tournament team. However, after taking a closer look at their game-by-game results, it’s difficult to see what makes Leon Rice’s team worthy of an at-large bid.

Boise State has a noteworthy nonconference win at then-No. 11 Creighton, but in conference play, the Broncos have been nothing better than mediocre. Boise is 8-6 overall, but it is just 2-4 against Mountain West teams that will make the NCAA Tournament, and its computer numbers are a case of secondhand inflation. The Broncos’ two big wins---home against UNLV (RPI: 13) and Colorado State (RPI: 17)---came against teams with majorly inflated RPIs, which makes those wins look better than they really are. In addition, Boise State’s RPI reflects getting more credit than it deserves for sweeping Wyoming (RPI: 67), who is just 4-11 in MWC play. Nonetheless, the Broncos close out the regular season with a visit to UNLV and a home date with San Diego State. A win in at least one of those games would provide some validity to Boise State’s lofty RPI and give the Broncos a reasonable chance of making the Big Dance.

Iowa State: 19-10, 9-7 Big 12 (RPI: 53, SOS: 62)

The Cyclones had two opportunities to cement an NCAA Tournament berth last week, but they left themselves in bubble trouble after suffering their second heartbreaking overtime loss to Kansas on the season and a road blowout loss to Oklahoma over the weekend.

Iowa State doesn’t have any notable nonconference wins to speak of, and its only victories over teams likely to make the tournament are home triumphs over Kansas State and Oklahoma. The Cyclones are just 8-9 against teams in the RPI Top 150 and they suffered an ugly road loss to Texas Tech (RPI: 224) back in January. Iowa State needs a bare minimum of one win in its final two regular season contests, which are a home match-up with No. 13 Oklahoma State and a road battle with West Virginia. However, a win in both games would take a lot of pressure off of Fred Hoiberg’s team once the Big 12 Tournament rolls around.

Kentucky: 20-9, 11-5 SEC (RPI: 51, SOS: 59)

Could the defending National Champions really miss out on the Big Dance a year later? As of a few weeks ago, that didn’t seem to be the case, but once Kentucky lost its star freshman center Nerlens Noel to a knee injury, the Wildcats were thrown into unfamiliar bubble territory.

Kentucky’s only RPI Top 50 win is an overtime victory over Missouri a little more than a week ago. Following a loss at Arkansas on Saturday, the Cats also dropped to 2-3 against fellow SEC bubble teams. However, while each of the other four bubble teams in the SEC has at least two losses outside of the RPI Top 100, Kentucky is yet to lose to a non-Top 100 team. The Wildcats will put that feat on the line with a tricky road trip to Georgia (RPI: 128) on Thursday before hosting No. 11 Florida on Saturday. Wins in both games should seal a tournament bid for John Calipari and company, but even with a 1-1 finish, a solid showing in the SEC Tournament should give Kentucky the chance to defend its national title in 2013.

La Salle: 20-7, 10-4 A-10 (RPI: 44, SOS: 89)

The La Salle Explorers are arguably the least-talked about bubble team, probably because they keep maintaining the status quo by beating middle-of-the-pack A-10 teams. In its lone game last week, La Salle had no trouble with a struggling Duquesne team and came away with a 33 point win.

The Explorers picked up both of their signature wins in the same week back in late January when they took down Butler at home, who was ranked in the Top 10 at the time, and followed that up with a road win against VCU. Those wins were enough to put La Salle on the right side of the bubble, and John Giannini’s squad hasn’t really done much since to move the needle in either direction. A win at Saint Louis in the final week of the regular season would lock up a tournament bid for the Explorers, but as they long as they take care of business at home against George Washington on Wednesday, La Salle probably won’t need to be sweating out Selection Sunday.

Maryland: 20-9, 8-8 ACC (RPI: 71, SOS: 113)

Maryland kept its slim bubble hopes alive with a much-needed road win against Wake Forest on Saturday. However, the victory may very well be a case of too little, too late for the Terps, who followed up their huge win over Duke on February 16th with a road loss to Boston College (RPI: 131), and then hit another stumbling block at Georgia Tech (RPI: 139) a week ago.

Maryland’s impressive 20-9 record has been inflated by its easy nonconference schedule, something that has correspondingly had the opposite effect on its shaky RPI. The only thing keeping the Terrapins in the bubble conversation is that they finish the regular season with two potential resume-boosting, yet also winnable, games versus North Carolina and at Virginia. Maryland will need to win both contests and make some serious noise in the ACC Tournament to have any chance at an at-large berth.

Ole Miss: 21-8, 10-6 SEC (RPI: 58, SOS: 132)

The Rebels looked like a surefire NCAA Tournament team after their 17-2 start, but after losing six of their last 10 games, they are sitting squarely on the bubble. Although Mississippi’s record looks worthy of a tournament bid, Andy Kennedy’s squad isn’t chock-full of quality wins. A victory over Missouri, which looks much less impressive now than it did in January, and a sweep of Tennessee, is really all that Marshall Henderson and company have to hang their hat on. The Rebels are 3-1 against SEC bubble teams, but their at-large chances took a huge hit on Saturday when they fell to in-state rival Mississippi State (RPI: 226) in Starkville.

In the final week of the regular season, Ole Miss has a home date with Alabama before finishing the season at LSU. The Rebels would be sitting pretty with two wins, but if they win one of two, their fate would likely be decided in the SEC Tournament.

Saint Mary’s: 26-5, 14-2 WCC (RPI: 37, SOS: 114)

The general consensus seems to be that Saint Mary’s is a surefire NCAA Tournament team, but there is actually little on its resume to write home about. The Gaels are perfect against teams not named Gonzaga in WCC play, but that doesn’t mean much aside from two so-so wins against BYU.

Saint Mary’s was lucky to get a home match-up with Creighton in its Bracketbusters game, an opportunity that Randy Bennett’s crew took advantage of to pick up its only RPI Top 50 win of the season. The Gaels suffered iffy nonconference losses to Pacific (RPI No. 121) and Georgia Tech (RPI No. 139), but they avoided absorbing any backbreaking losses in their 17 games against teams outside of the RPI Top 150. With its regular season in the books, Saint Mary’s gets an automatic bye into the WCC Semifinals and needs to win that game (likely against BYU) to have a good chance of receiving an at-large berth.

Southern Miss: 22-7, 11-3 C-USA (RPI: 35, SOS: 92)

How can a team with no wins against teams expected to make the NCAA Tournament be in consideration for an at-large bid? Just ask Southern Miss how it managed to pick up zero noteworthy wins yet still earn a No. 35 RPI ranking.

Boise State’s inflated RPI is at least understandable, but it seems unfathomable that the Golden Eagles’ RPI could be so high. Take your pick at their most impressive win on the season: home against Denver (RPI: 65), home and away against East Carolina (RPI: 99), or on the road against Georgia (RPI: 128). As bad as that may sound, based on the selection committee’s past practices, that eye-catching RPI just may be enough to net Southern Miss an at-large bid. The Golden Eagles must win their final two regular season games (at Marshall and home against UCF), and they need East Carolina to hang on to its Top 100 ranking, because otherwise, Southern Miss would be down to just one Top 100 win.

Temple: 21-8, 9-5 A-10 (RPI: 42, SOS: 51)

Temple is a classic example of a team that steps up its game when its faces stiff competition, but plays down to the level of inferior teams. This season, the Owls have notched key wins over Syracuse, Saint Louis, and La Salle, but they’ve suffered head-scratching home losses to the likes of Canisius (RPI: 110), St. Bonaventure (RPI: 105) and, worst of all, Duquesne (RPI: 216), whose victory over Temple is its only A-10 win of the season.

Last week, the Owls completed a pair of successful second-half home comebacks against Detroit and Rhode Island---games they could ill-afford to lose---to stay in good shape for an NCAA Tourney bid. Temple’s 9-5 record against the RPI Top 100 should be enough to earn an at-large selection, but the Owls need to go at least 1-1 in final two games of the regular season---at Fordham and home against No. 21 VCU. Win both games, and Temple would likely be off the bubble altogether.

Tennessee: 17-11, 9-7 SEC (RPI: 56, SOS: 38)

Following a 3-6 start in SEC play, the Volunteers looked like they’d be missing out on March Madness for the second straight season. However, Tennessee quickly turned things around with a six-game winning streak, capped off with a key win against Florida, to get itself back into the bubble conversation.

Just as the Volunteers looked to have worked their way onto the right side of the bubble, they fell to Georgia on Saturday. Tennessee is hurt by its 2-5 record against fellow SEC bubble teams, but it does have a nice nonconference win over Wichita State, and its recent 30-point thrashing of Kentucky is likely still fresh in the minds of the selection committee. If the Vols can pick up wins at Auburn and home against Missouri this week, a 7-2 finish to the regular season could help them leapfrog some of the other SEC bubble teams in the eyes of the committee.

Villanova: 18-12, 9-8 Big East (RPI: 55, SOS: 31)

All that the Wildcats needed to do last week was hold on to one of their final-minute leads, and they would have been sitting comfortably above the bubble line. However, after Villanova could not hang on to its four-point advantage with less than 20 seconds to play at Seton Hall and then fell in overtime at Pittsburgh despite never trailing in the second half, the Cats are now in must-win mode for their regular season finale.

Nova’s bubble situation is actually probably the least-complicated of any team. Beat No. 5 Georgetown on Wednesday, and they should be in. Lose their third straight to finish the regular season, and the Wildcats are likely NIT-bound. A win over Georgetown would be Villanova’s fourth RPI Top 15 win of the season (Louisville, Syracuse, and Marquette), which would simply be too much for the selection committee to ignore. However, with a loss, a .500 conference record would probably not be enough to make up for a poor showing in nonconference play, which included an ugly 18-point home loss to Columbia (RPI: 265) and losses to fellow bubble teams Alabama, La Salle, and Temple.

Virginia: 20-9, 10-6 ACC (RPI: 64, SOS: 120)

It’s not often that a team goes 7-2 against the RPI Top 100 and is left out of the NCAA Tournament. Then again, it’s rare that a team suffers seven losses outside of the Top 100 and hears its name called on Selection Sunday. However, in the case of the Virginia Cavaliers, something will have to give.

After a horrendous nonconference showing that included losses to George Mason (RPI: 156), Delaware (RPI: 127), and Old Dominion (RPI: 315), Virginia was very relieved to begin playing ACC opponents instead of CAA ones. The Cavaliers have been solid in conference play, but they were missing that one signature win until they knocked off No. 3 Duke last Thursday to improve to 17-1 at home.  However, Virginia followed up that exhilarating win with a humbling one-point loss at Boston College on Sunday. Right now, a February 10th road win against fellow ACC bubble team Maryland and a key nonconference win at Wisconsin is keeping the Cavaliers ahead of the Terps in the bubble race, but Virginia will need to win at least one of its final two regular season contests---at Florida State and home against Maryland---to feel good about its at-large chances, although two wins would make Selection Sunday much more stress-free.

Bradford Conners is a sophomore majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email btc5082@psu.edu.